彭博：继就业通胀之战尚未结束，下周（2.12）再次超预期？

通胀的阴霾依旧徘徊在美股上空，通胀本身并可怕；而是与之对抗的洪荒之力——抽走市场流动性才值得关注。目前，美联储的重中之重，仍然是控制通胀，锚定目标——2%。目前6.5%，离这一目标，仍然有相当的距离。

彭博社(Bloomberg)报道–投资者正为下周四可能加剧债券市场暴跌的关键通胀数据做好准备。

美国劳工部上周二发布的一份报告预计，1月消费者价格将在三个月内首次加速上涨，尽管年度通胀率进一步下降。

这一逆转发生在1月份就业数据井喷之后《给股市的一盆冷水！大超预期！美国1月非农就业人口猛增51.7万人，失业率创53年新低》，该数据导致债券价格自那以后大幅下跌。随后，美联储官员表示，通胀之战尚未结束，央行可能需要更长时间才能实现价格稳定。这也将使人们对通胀仍将保持下降趋势的希望破灭，这一观点引发了美国国债上月的反弹。

洛克菲勒全球家庭办公室(RockefellerGlobalFamilyOffice)首席投资官吉米·张(JimmyChang)表示：“短期内，通胀可能不会像市场预期的那样迅速下降。”

由于cpi预计会出现一些上涨，危险仍然是，月度措施的大幅上升将延长美国国债的抛售期。掉期交易商将最终基金利率的预期上调至近5.20%，略高于美联储官员在去年12月会议上设定的预测中值。

(Bloomberg) –Investors are bracing for key inflation data next week that could worsen the bond-market rout.
January consumer prices are seen accelerating for the first time in three months, even as the annual inflation rate declines further, a Labor Department report Tuesday is expected to show.

The reversal would come on the heels of blowout January jobs data that sent bonds tumbling since then. Afterward, Federal Reserve officials conveyed that the inflation battle is not over and it may take a lot longer for the central bank to achieve price stability. It would also dash hopes that inflation would remain in a downward trend, a view that sparked a rally in Treasuries last month.

“There is a near-term risk that inflation does not fall as rapidly as the market is expecting,” said Jimmy Chang, chief investment officer of Rockefeller Global Family Office.

With some up-tick in CPI anticipated, the danger remains that a larger rise in monthly measures would extend the selloff in Treasuries. Swaps traders have hoisted their outlook for the terminal funds rate to nearly 5.20%, slightly above the median forecast set by Fed officials at their December meeting.