12月14日美联储会议，鲍威尔讲话全文

Good afternoon.Before I go into the details of today’s meeting, I’d like to underscore for the American people that we understand the hardship that high inflation is causing and that we are strongly committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2% goal.

下午好！在正式进入发布会之前，我先向广大民众强调一点，我们非常理解通胀给大家带来的困难（hardship），我们正在坚定地采取行动，将通胀拉回到2%的目标水平。

Over the course of the year, we’ve taken forceful actions to tighten the stance of monetary policy. We’ve covered a lot of ground and the full effects of our rapid tightening so far are yet to be felt.Even so we have more work to do,

一年来，我们采取了有力措施收紧货币政策立场，涉及面很广，但目前快速收紧货币政策的效果尚未完全显现。即便如此，我们还有很多工作要做，

Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy; Without price stability, the economy doesn’t work for anyone. In particular, without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all.

保持物价稳定是美联储的职责所在，而稳定的物价也是经济运转的基石。没有稳定的物价，经济就无法正常运转。特别需要注意的是，没有稳定的物价，强劲的就业市场（这对所有人有利）也无法持续。

Today the FOMC raised our policy interest rate by 1/2 percentage point. We continue to anticipate that ongoing increases will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2% over time. In addition, we’re continuing the process of significantly reducing the size of our balance sheet

今天，FOMC将政策利率区间提升50个基点。我们判断，正在进行的的加息是适当的。我们正在坚定地将我们的货币政策推到一个足以遏制通胀的水平。与此同时，我们正在大规模缩减我们的资产负债表。

Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time; I’ll have more to say about today’s monetary policy actions after briefly reviewing economic developments.

恢复物价要求我维持紧缩性的货币政策一段时间。让我先简要回顾下当前的经济形势，随后我再来详细阐释我们当前的货币政策。

The US economy has slowed significantly from last year’s rapid pace although real GDP rose at a pace of 2.9% last quarter. It is roughly unchanged through the first 3/4 of this year . Recent indicators point to modest growth of spending and production this quarter. Growth in consumer spending has slowed from last year’s rapid pace, in part reflecting lower real disposable income and tighter financial conditions. Activity in the housing sector has weakened significantly, largely reflecting higher mortgage rates. Higher interest rates and slower output growth also appear to be weighing on business fixed investment.

与去年相比，经济增速已经显著下降。三季度GDP的实际经济增速是2.9%，过去三个季度增速几无变化。最近的经济指标显示，支出（spending）和产出（output）都在温和增长。与去年相比，消费增速在下降，这部分反映出人们的可支配收入在降低，同时金融市场在收紧。由于抵押贷款利率的升高，房地产领域的经济活动在快速萎缩。利率在升高，产出增速下降，这对固定资产投资产生了影响。

As shown in our Summary of Economic Projections, the median projection for real GDP growth stands at just 0.5 percent this year and next, well below the median estimate of the longer-run normal growth rate.

正如我们的经济预测摘要SEP显示，今明两年实际GDP增长的预测中值仅为0.5%，远低于长期正常增长率的预测中值。

Despite the slowdown in growth, the labor market remains extremely tight, with the unemployment rate near a 50-year low, job vacancies still very high, and wage growth elevated. Job gains have been robust, with employment rising by an average of 272,000 jobs per month over the last three months. Although job vacancies have moved below their highs and the pace of job gains has slowed from earlier in the year, the labor market continues to be out of balance, with demand substantially exceeding the supply of available workers. The labor force participation rate is little changed since the beginning of the year.

尽管经济增长放缓，但劳动力市场仍然极度紧张，失业率接近50年来的最低水平，职位空缺仍然很高，工资增长也在加快。就业增长势头强劲，过去三个月平均每月增加27.2万个就业岗位。尽管职位空缺已降至高点以下，就业岗位增长的速度也较今年早些时候有所放缓，但劳动力市场继续失衡，需求大大超过了可用劳动力的供应。自今年年初以来，劳动参与率几乎没有变化。

FOMC participants expect supply and demand conditions in the labor market to come into better balance over time, easing upward pressures on wages and prices. The median projection in the SEP for the unemployment rate rises to 4.6 percent at the end of next year.

FOMC与会者预计，随着时间的推移，劳动力市场的供需状况将更好地达到平衡，从而缓解工资和物价的上行压力。预计明年年底失业率将上升至4.6%（SEP预测中位数）。

Inflation remains well above our longer-run goal of 2 percent. Over the 12 months ending in October, total PCE prices rose 6 percent; excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 5 percent.

In November, the 12-month change in the CPI was 7.1 percent, and the change in the core CPI was 6 percent. The inflation data received so far for October and November show a welcome reduction in the monthly pace of price increases.

通货膨胀率仍然远高于我们2%的长期目标。在截至10月份的过去12个月里，个人消费总支出上涨了6%;扣除波动较大的食品和能源类别，核心消费支出也上涨5%了。11月数据显示，过去12个月的CPI涨幅为7.1%，核心CPI涨幅为6%。迄今为止收到的10月和11月通胀数据显示，月度价格上涨速度出现了可喜的放缓。

But it will take substantially more evidence to give confidence that inflation is on a sustained downward path. Price pressures remain evident across a broad range of goods and services. Russia’s war against Ukraine has boosted prices for energy and food and has contributed to upward pressure on inflation. The median projection in the SEP for total PCE inflation is 5.6 percent this year and falls to 3.1 percent next year, 2.5 percent in 2024, and 2.1 percent in 2025; participants continue to see risks to inflation as weighted to the upside.

但要让人们相信通胀正处于持续下行道路上，还需要更多的证据。商品和服务价格，普遍面临着较大的上行压力。俄乌战争提高了能源和食品的价格，进一步推高了通货膨胀。SEP数据显示，今年个人消费支出总通胀率（PCE inflation）的预测中值为5.6%，明年将降至3.1%，2024年为2.5%，2025年为2.1%，参与者继续认为通胀依然有上行风险。

Despite elevated inflation, longer-term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored, as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, as well as measures from financial markets. But that is not grounds for complacency; the longer the current bout of high inflation continues, the greater the chance that expectations of higher inflation will become entrenched.

尽管通胀高企，长期通胀预期似乎仍然稳定，即人们认为高通胀会持续一段时间。一系列针对家庭、企业和预测者的调研证实了这一点。人们的通胀预期也在金融市场中有所反映。当高通胀持续的时间越长，高通胀预期变得根深蒂固的可能性就越大。

The Fed’s monetary policy actions are guided by our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. My colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship as it erodes purchasing power, especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation. We are highly attentive to the risks that high inflation poses to both sides of our mandate, and we are strongly committed to returning inflation to our 2 percent objective.

美联储的货币政策以我们的使命为指导，即充分就业和物价稳定。我和我的同仁清楚地认识到到，对那些无力支付高昂的食物费用、租金和交通费用的人们来说，高通胀是一种灾难，因为通胀会削弱他们的购买力。我们高度关注通胀对我们的双重目标造成的伤害，我们也坚定地致力于将通胀恢复到2%的政策目标。

At today’s meeting, the Committee raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point, bringing the target range to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. And we are continuing the process of significantly reducing the size of our balance sheet.

在今天的议息会议上，委员会决定将联邦基金利率提高50个基点，从而将联邦基金利率区间提升至4.25%-4.5%；同时，我们也在继续大规模缩减资产负债表，这也是我们紧缩性货币政策的重要组成部分。

With today’s action, we have raised interest rates by 4-1/4 percentage points this year. We continue to anticipate that ongoing increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. Over the course of the year, financial conditions have tightened significantly in response to our policy actions. Financial conditions fluctuate in the short term in response to many factors, but it is important that over time they reflect the policy restraint we are putting in place to return inflation to 2 percent. We are seeing the effects on demand in the most interest-sensitive sectors of the economy, such as housing. It will take time, however, for the full effects of monetary restraint to be realized, especially on inflation.

今年以来，我们已经将联邦基金利率提高了4-4.25%。我们坚持认为，为了遏制通胀，并让其回落至至2%，这样的加息步伐是适当的。受美联储货币政策影响，金融市场已经显著收紧，受多种因素影响，短期内金融市场波动很大；但随着时间的推移，它们会反映出我们为使通胀率恢复到2%而实施的政策约束。我们关注到，货币政策正在对利率敏感行业（比如房地产）的需求产生影响。然而，货币政策的限制制作用要想充分展现，尚需时日，对于通胀，就更是如此。

In light of the cumulative tightening of monetary policy and the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, the Committee decided to raise interest rates by 50 basis points today, a step down from the 75-basis point pace seen over the previous four meetings. Of course, 50 basis points is still a historically large increase, and we still have some ways to go. As shown in the SEP, the median projection for the appropriate level of the federal funds rate is 5.1 percent at the end of next year, 1/2 percentage point higher than projected in September. The median projection is 4.1 percent at the end of 2024 and 3.1 percent at the end of 2025, still above the median estimate of its longer-run value. Of course, these projections do not represent a Committee decision or plan, and no one knows with any certainty where the economy will be a year or more from now.

鉴于货币政策的累积效应，以及货币政策影响经济活动和通胀的滞后性，委员会决定今天加息50个基点，较前四次会议的75个基点有所回落。当然，50个基点仍然是历史性的大幅增长，我们还有一段路要走。如SEP所示，2023年底联邦基金利率适当水平的预估中值为5.1%，较9月预估高出0.5个百分点。2024年底预测中值是4.1%，2025年底3.1%，仍高于对其长期的预测中值。当然，这些预测并不代表委员会的决定或计划，没有人确切知道一年或更长时间后的经济状况。

Our decisions will depend on the totality of incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation. And we will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting and communicate our thinking as clearly as possible.

我们的货币政策将取决于接下来整体的经济数据，以及这些数据对通胀和经济前景的影响。我们将在后续的会议上作出决定，并竭力向公众清晰地传达我们的想法。

We are taking forceful steps to moderate demand so that it comes into better alignment with supply. Our overarching focus is using our tools to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent goal and to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored. Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth and some softening of labor market conditions. Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run.

我们正在采取强有力的措施去抑制需求（moderate demand），以便让供求平衡。我们当前的首要目标是将通胀降至2%，并保持人们对通胀的稳定预期。降低通胀的举措可能会让经济增速低于潜在增速一段时间，也会让就业市场变得疲软。然而，从长期来看，遏制通胀将为充分就业和物价稳定打下良好基础。

The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. We will stay the course, until the job is done.

历史经验明确地提醒我们，不能过早放松货币政策。我们将坚定执行现有政策，直至目标达成。

To conclude, we understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals. Thank you. I look forward to your questions.

总而言之，我们的货币政策将会对整个社会产生影响。我们的一切举动都服务于我们的使命。美联储全体同仁，将竭尽全力履行美联储的使命，即充分就业和物价稳定。

谢谢！期待你们的提问。关于鲍威尔答记者问，参见：《2022年12月美联储FOMC议息纪要：锚定通胀路径》