华尔街日报：美联储的风舵——控制通胀OR解决危机

There is a saying that the Federal Reserve raises interest rates until something breaks. A big surprise over the past year had been that nothing broke.

有一种说法是，美联储提高利率，直到某些事情发生变 化。在过去的一年里，一个巨大的惊喜就是没有任何东 西坏掉。

No more. A sharp selloff in regional bank stocks Monday following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank risks pushing the Fed uncomfortably close to the one place it wanted to avoid over the past year: resolving a financial-stability trauma at the same time it fights high inflation.

不会再有了。在硅谷银行(Silicon Valley Bank)和签名 银行(Signature Bank)破产后，周一地区性银行股大幅 下挫，可能会令美联储不安地接近它在过去一年想要避免的一个地方: 在应对高通胀的同时，解决金融稳定创伤。

The situation could force Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues into choosing what problem demands the central bank’s top focus.

这种情况可能迫使美联储主席杰罗姆•鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)和他的同事们选择哪个问题需要央行的首要关 注点。 The Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank: What You Need to Know 硅谷银行的崩溃: 你需要知道什么

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The Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank: What You Need to Know 硅谷银行的崩溃: 你需要知道什么Play video: The Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank: What You Need to Know 播放视频: 硅谷 银行的崩溃: 你需要知道的

The abrupt collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank, the second- biggest bank failure in U.S. history, prompted regulators to

impose emergency measures to stem the fallout. WSJ’s Rachel Ensign explains how the crisis unfolded and what could happen next. Photo: Preston Gannaway for The Wall Street Journal 硅谷银行(Silicon Valley Bank)的突然倒闭，是美国历 史上第二大银行倒闭事件，促使监管机构采取紧急措施，以遏 制其影响。《华尔街日报》的雷切尔•恩赛因解释了这场危机是 如何展开的，以及接下来可能会发生什么。图片来源: Preston Gannaway for The Wall Street Journal

“We’ve always said the one thing that could derail the Fed’s tightening would be a financial crisis. It’s not clear whether a crisis has been averted yet,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG.

“我们一直认为，唯一可能阻碍美联储收紧政策的是金 融危机。目前尚不清楚危机是否已得到避免,”毕马威 (KPMG)首席经济学家戴安•斯旺克(Diane Swonk)表 示。

Fed officials slowed their pace of rate rises last month when they boosted the benchmark federal-funds rate by a quarter point to a range between 4.5% and 4.75%. The move followed increases of a larger half point in December and 0.75 point in November and at three previous meetings.

美联储官员上月放慢了加息步伐，将基准联邦基金利率 上调25个基点，至4.5% 至4.75% 之间。此前，在去年 12月和11月以及之前的三次会议上，美联储分别上调了 0.55个百分点和0.75个百分点。

Following the bank failures, investors in interest-rate futures markets saw a greater than one-in-three chance midday Monday that the Fed would hold rates steady at its meeting next week, according to CME Group.

根据芝加哥商品交易所集团(CME Group)的数据，在银 行破产后，利率期货市场的投资者在周一午间看到，美 联储在下周的会议上维持利率不变的可能性超过三分之 一。

Last week, investors were wondering whether the Fed would raise interest rates at its next meeting by a quarter-percentage point, as officials did last month, or by a half-point, as they did in December.

上周，投资者在猜测，美联储是会像上个月官员们那 样，在下次会议上加息0.25个百分点，还是像去年12月 那样加息0.5个百分点。

The turmoil in the U.S. banking industry unleashed a rally in government bonds Monday, with yields on some shorter-term Treasurys collapsing half a percentage point in hours. The plunge punctuated how investors have pivoted from worrying about inflation and interest-rate increases to focusing on how problems with banks could damage the economy.

美国银行业的动荡周一引发政府公债价格上扬，部分短 期公债收益率在数小时内暴跌0.5个百分点。股市暴跌 突显出，投资者已从担心通胀和加息转向关注银行问题 可能对经济造成的损害。

Until last week, the economy and financial system had shown few obvious side effects from the Fed’s aggressive campaign to raise rates over the past year, outside of a sharp slowdown in housing.

直到上周，美联储过去一年大举加息，除了房地产市场 急剧放缓之外，经济和金融体系几乎没有显示出明显的 副作用。

Then the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank forced a broader rethink among investors about the prospects of regional banks. That, in turn, could lead to a significant pullback in lending from firms that face pressure to raise deposit rates as the Fed has cranked interest rates higher to fight inflation.

随后，硅谷银行(Silicon Valley Bank)的突然倒闭，迫 使投资者对地区性银行的前景进行了更广泛的反思。这 反过来可能导致面临提高存款利率压力的公司大幅减少 放贷，因为美联储已经提高利率以对抗通胀。

Fed officials have at times over the past year acknowledged the risk of being forced to simultaneously fight two problems—financial stability fallout and inflation. Several have said they would use

emergency lending tools, along the lines of the bank- funding facility the Fed unveiled Sunday, to fight the former so they could continue to raise interest rates or hold rates at higher levels to fight the latter.

过去一年里，美联储官员多次承认，他们有可能被迫同 时应对两个问题: 金融稳定问题和通胀问题。一些人表 示，他们将使用类似美联储周日公布的银行融资工具的 紧急贷款工具来对抗前者，以便他们能够继续提高利率 或将利率维持在更高水平以对抗后者。

“I believe we have tools in place to address any financial-stability concerns and should not be looking to monetary policy for this purpose,” Fed governor Christopher Waller said in a speech last October. “The focus of monetary policy needs to be fighting inflation,” he said.

美联储理事克里斯托弗•沃勒(Christopher Waller)去年 10月在一次演讲中表示: “我认为，我们已经有了应对金 融稳定担忧的工具，不应该为此而指望货币政策。”。 他表示: “货币政策的重点需要放在抗击通胀上。”。

He made the remarks one week after the Bank of England confronted a crisis sparked by a tax-cut plan that triggered financial turmoil in the U.K. The central bank faced the tricky task of buying government bonds, which can provide a form of stimulus, to stabilize disrupted markets at the same time it was trying to tighten policy to fight inflation.

他发表上述言论的一周前，英国央行(Bank of England) 正面临一项减税计划引发的危机，该计划引发了英国的 金融动荡。央行面临的棘手任务是购买政府债券，这可 以提供一种形式的刺激，以稳定受到干扰的市场，与此 同时，央行正试图收紧政策，以抗击通胀。

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The Fed and Treasury unveiled aggressive measures Sunday night, alongside the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., to backstop uninsured deposits at two failed banks and provide more generous funding to banks to meet demands for withdrawals.

美联储和财政部周日晚间与美国联邦存款保险公司 (FDIC)一道，公布了激进措施，以支持两家破产银行的 无保险存款，并向银行提供更慷慨的资金，以满足提款 要求。

The hope was that this “allows them to pursue their program of fighting inflation,” said William Dudley, who was president of the New York Fed from 2009 to 2018. “Do you have enough tools for the job? If you have multiple goals, you need multiple tools.”

2009年至2018年担任纽约联邦储备银行(New York Fed)行长的威廉•达德利(William Dudley)表示，希望这 “能让他们继续推行抗击通胀的计划”。“你有足够的工 具做这项工作吗?如果你有多个目标，你就需要多种工 具。”

Regulators invoked something known as the “systemic risk exception” in allowing the FDIC to guarantee uninsured deposits in the two banks. Given that, it would be a “disconnect” to raise interest rates next week, said Eric Rosengren, who was president of the Boston Fed from 2007 to 2021. “Why raise rates if you are worried about a systemic problem to the U.S. economy?”

监管机构援引所谓的“系统性风险例外”，允许 FDIC 为 这两家银行的无保险存款提供担保。2007年至2021年 担任波士顿联邦储备银行(Boston Fed)行长的埃里克•罗 森格伦(Eric Rosengren)表示，有鉴于此，下周加息将 是一个“脱节”。“如果你担心美国经济存在系统性问 题，为什么还要加息呢?”

Economists at Barclays, which last week said they anticipated a half-point rate rise at the March 21-22 meeting, said Monday they now expected the Fed to hold rates steady in March and leave the door open to a few more increases once the current crisis settles down. Goldman Sachs economists also said Sunday night that they anticipated the Fed would hold rates steady next week.

巴克莱(Barclays)经济学家周一表示，他们现在预计美 联储将在3月21日至22日的会议上维持利率不变，一旦 当前的危机平息下来，美联储可能会再加息几次。巴克

莱上周表示，他们预计3月21日至22日的会议上将加息 50个基点。高盛(GoldmanSachs)经济学家周日晚间也 表示，他们预计美联储下周将维持利率不变。

Others, including Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase, said they still expected an interest-rate increase of a quarter-point.

包括摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)首席美国经济学家迈 克尔•费罗利(Michael Feroli)在内的其他人表示，他们 仍预计美联储将加息25个基点。

The Fed raises rates to fight inflation by slowing the economy through tighter financial conditions—such as higher borrowing costs, lower stock prices and a stronger dollar—that curb demand. But the effects of those actions don’t show up right away, and can be akin to getting ketchup out of a glass bottle: Smacking the bottle repeatedly leads to no results, then too much of the condiment pours out.

美联储通过收紧金融环境(如借贷成本上升、股价下跌 和美元走强)来减缓经济增长，从而提高利率以遏制通 胀。但是这些行为的效果并不会马上显现出来，就像是 把番茄酱从玻璃瓶里拿出来一样: 反复拍打瓶子导致没 有效果，然后太多的调味品流出来。

A significant widening in credit spreads, which will make it more expensive for banks and businesses to borrow, could lead to a sharp pullback in lending that is too much, too fast, for the Fed.

信贷息差大幅扩大，将使银行和企业借贷成本上升，可 能导致贷款大幅缩减，这对美联储来说太多、太快了。

“While the Fed wants tighter financial conditions to restrain aggregate demand, they don’t want that to occur in a nonlinear fashion that can quickly spiral out of control, perhaps to the detriment of the taxpayer,” Mr. Feroli of JPMorgan Chase said in a report Sunday night. “And while they want credit to become more expensive, they shouldn’t want creditworthy borrowers to be shut out at any price.”

摩根大通的费罗利先生在周日晚间的一份报告中表示: “尽管美联储希望收紧金融状况以限制总需求，但他们 不希望这种情况以一种非线性的方式发生，这种非线性 方式可能会迅速失去控制，可能会损害纳税人的利 益。”。“尽管他们希望信贷成本上升，但他们不应该希 望信誉良好的借款人不惜一切代价被拒之门外。”

Fed officials said last month that raising rates in smaller steps would better allow them to assess the effects of last year’s rapid increases and reduce the risk of raising rates too much.

美联储官员上月表示，以较小幅度加息，将使他们能够 更好地评估去年快速加息的影响，并降低过度加息的风 险。

What do the SVB and Signature bank failures mean for the Fed’s next steps? Join the conversation below.

SVB 和 Signature 银行倒闭对美联储下一步的行动意味着什么? 请参加下面的讨论。

But before the run on Silicon Valley Bank last week, Mr. Powell floated the possibility of a larger increase at the meeting this month amid signs the economy was gaining unexpected momentum. “Nothing about the data suggests to me that we’ve tightened too much,” he said on March 7 before the Senate Banking Committee.

但在上周硅谷银行挤兑事件发生之前，鲍威尔先生在本 月的会议上提出了更大幅度提高利率的可能性，因为有 迹象表明经济正在获得意想不到的动力。3月7日，他在 参议院银行委员会(Senate Banking Committee)表示: “在我看来，没有任何数据表明我们收紧得太多。”。

Just how the crisis will unfold isn’t known, but some analysts warned Monday that it could lead to more fundamental changes in how the banking system operates. If banks face the steady erosion of uninsured, transactional deposits from corporate

clients, credit creation could pull back, hitting small and midsize businesses that have been major employers.

目前尚不清楚这场危机将如何演变，但一些分析师周一 警告称，它可能导致银行体系运作方式发生更根本性的 变化。如果银行面临来自企业客户的没有保险的交易性存款不断减少的局面，信贷创造可能会减少，从而打击 一直是主要雇主的中小企业。

In 2008, the Fed was reluctant at times to cut interest rates as the financial crisis intensified because some officials were worried about inflation, which was being pushed up by higher oil prices. But core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is considerably higher now than it was then, posing an even stiffer potential test.

2008年，随着金融危机加剧，美联储有时不愿降息， 因为一些官员担心油价上涨推高通胀。但核心通胀率 (不包括波动较大的食品和能源价格)现在远高于当时， 构成了更严峻的潜在考验。

A separate risk is that the Fed turns less aggressive in its inflation fight and the crisis passes more quickly, worsening the inflation problem. A market melt-up followed Fed rate cuts in 1998 to address the blowup of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management.

另一个风险是，美联储在抗击通胀方面变得不那么激 进，危机过去得更快，从而加剧通胀问题。在1998年 美联储降息以应对对冲基金长期资本管理公司(Long- Term Capital Management)破产之后，市场出现了崩 盘。

“It is a policy box for the Fed,” Ms. Swonk said. “The first order of business is to make sure the banking sector is sound and stable. But if those steps ease financial market conditions, you don’t know how much you’ll derail inflationary pressures.”

“这是美联储的一个政策框架,”斯旺克说。“首要任务是 确保银行业健康、稳定。但如果这些举措缓解了金融市 场状况，你不知道会在多大程度上扭转通胀压力。”

Write to Nick Timiraos at Nick.Timiraos@wsj.com 写信给 Nick Timiraos 在 Nick. Timiraos@wsj.com Banks Under Pressure